[Back: "tanjong pagar + chinatown walk, and more things to read"] [Main Index] [Forward: ""]

2/9/2006: "China or India?"

Somewhere in between the fractured nightmares of being late for work, bootleg 8pm whiskey sodas, and 2am post-work suppers, that question M asked me in the Philippines popped back into my mind - which country has the capacity - not the will, but the ability - to pose a greater challenge to the US: India or China? Clearly, this is the sort of thing that some people get paid a whole lot to take an educated swipe at, rather than the stuff of late-night blogging. I certainly can't answer this question. But there seems to be a clear thought process by which one would try to arrive at a prediction:

Henry Kissinger, ever the consummate elder strategist, makes the sound assessment in his book "Does America Need a Foreign Policy?" that if you take any country today, it is more in that country's interest to be on good terms with the US, rather than to be the US' enemy. So far, this is fairly evident. The second point is the immutability of history, geography, and size. There are only a few states that have the combination of land mass, population, economic weight, military potential, and cultural depth to assume the role of a separate geopolitical "pole" vis-a-vis the US. For most other countries, the US isn't so bad a deal. After all, it's fairly benign unless you happen to be Hugo Chavez or Kim Jong-Il.

The critical question then becomes: what is needed for the majority of the world's significant countries (i.e. those whose allegiances or views make a difference) to stop seeing things this way? The simple answer would be - if the US suddenly became outwardly belligerent, dangerous, or xenophobic. (Hmm.) But since this is relatively un-interesting from an intellectual point of view, let's look at other cases. To present a real alternative to the US in today's world, the claimant would have to have good expeditionary military capabilities and the political will to use them. Besides this, the country would have to exhibit formidable economic strength (be in a position to provide economic incentives or access to its markets, that would build chains of reliance), and have a reservoir of "soft power" - cultural attractiveness - whatever you call it that the US has, that makes consumers from Mindanao to Moscow desire their basketball, pop music and canned soda.

Take those indicators, and at this moment, I'd say that China has the edge. But it's not a strong lead, and fifty years is a decent time for India to catch up. At the end of the day, it's not a zero-sum game for either one of these aspirants. Should they both rise to the occasion, they will be in a solid position to call for the table to be set for three. And this promises to be a more stable, evolutionary redefinition of the world order, unlike the Cold War, where the former USSR's might was built on military power (which its bankrupt economy could not sustain and its rebellious vassals learnt to circumvent), and an ideological force that ultimately rang hollow.

Replies: 19partiesnoted

Save time by hitting.
Butterfly cake toppers wedding. The perfect beach wedding favor for your guests wedding cake toppers butterfly wishes in precious jewels keepsake cake top Feng shui wedding month. I helped my friend with her wedding last month our basis was black and white, but we incorporated star gazer lilies to tie into her pink (favorite color) wedding dress.

Spyros said on 18 jul 08 at 12:34 pm

hay http://groups.google.us/group/vid-upskirt-me ">britany spears upskirt etrwr

kate said on 20 may 08 at 04:36 am

it's nice site http://groups.google.us/group/upskirt-nu ">upskirt tit slip 8]]

joseph said on 19 may 08 at 07:33 am

it's nice site http://groups.google.us/group/upskirt-nu ">upskirt tit slip 8]]

joseph said on 19 may 08 at 07:33 am

it's nice site http://groups.google.us/group/upskirt-nu ">upskirt tit slip 8]]

joseph said on 19 may 08 at 07:32 am

interesting post thx

bob said on 19 may 08 at 07:31 am

interesting post thx

bob said on 19 may 08 at 07:30 am

interesting post thx

bob said on 19 may 08 at 07:30 am

HMGDuL

xRsrOeZc said on 17 may 08 at 09:31 am

HMGDuL

xRsrOeZc said on 17 may 08 at 09:30 am

q1clWA vpbzbbxbfuoh, [url=http://waoqcfjzyawr.com/]waoqcfjzyawr[/url], [link=http://nbpshswiwlsy.com/]nbpshswiwlsy[/link], http://aumplnrutrdu.com/

xsnlsuupu said on 31 mar 08 at 10:49 pm

q1clWA vpbzbbxbfuoh, [url=http://waoqcfjzyawr.com/]waoqcfjzyawr[/url], [link=http://nbpshswiwlsy.com/]nbpshswiwlsy[/link], http://aumplnrutrdu.com/

xsnlsuupu said on 31 mar 08 at 10:49 pm

q1clWA vpbzbbxbfuoh, [url=http://waoqcfjzyawr.com/]waoqcfjzyawr[/url], [link=http://nbpshswiwlsy.com/]nbpshswiwlsy[/link], http://aumplnrutrdu.com/

xsnlsuupu said on 31 mar 08 at 10:49 pm

afty64w cool site!!! [url=http://seroitu1.com]cool site!!![/url] http://seroitu2.com rtj5653

seroitu said on 27 feb 08 at 03:25 pm

gay men rape boys http://pltlj.gay-extreme-sex.com/gay-men-rape-boys.htm
[url=http://mtqjf.gaystudhorse.com/how-to-make-love-and-sex-with-69.htm]how to make love and sex with 69[/url]
gay amazing oral sex

jbaxonklqo said on 6 jul 07 at 04:58 am

An Indiana law states that within four hours of eating garlic, a person may not enter a movie house, theater, or ride a public streetcar Morgage Calculator and money

money said on 27 nov 06 at 08:23 am

Americans borrow between $400 billion and $500 billion a year against home equity alone. no income verification mortgage and money

money said on 27 nov 06 at 07:49 am

If paying your mortgage has become a hardship, it's time to look for a better deal. refinance [URL=http://ishi.arp.harvard.edu/atmobs/docs/Refinance.html] refinance[/URL] http://ishi.arp.harvard.edu/atmobs/docs/Refinance.html

refinance said on 17 nov 06 at 03:39 am

Add A New Comment