thirdpartynotes

coconuts

So one morning I get to the office and my desk is covered in baby coconuts, thanks to YL. Who needs fair winds and following tides? It's always nice to have unexpected possibilities wash up.

coconut (39k image)

23/9/06 [permalink] [1502partiesnoted]

This morning there is a riotous jig of pinks and purples outside my window.

I don't recall seeing them there the night before, but I was tired, and flowers can be hidden by the darkness. Even flowers such as these. The avoidance of literary excess remains a virtue, but it also seems a matter of honesty for me to describe a magnificent cascade of colour, a waterfall of brilliant blues and fuschias and purples and pinks attempting to scale the wire fence and spill over onto the street beyond. It's a breezy morning with a light that is hard and yellow but not unkind. I have a mug of tea in my hand and for just a brief moment I convince myself I need nothing more.

When the outside world floods back in, I drink tea and think of the workplace. Natural, I suppose, for thoughts to seek that which is most familiar. And so much has changed since May this year. May and June, when we were in that groove that came with trust and understanding, the liquid synchronicity that accompanied the years, and nothing else came between us. Yesterday we marked another farewell, to our mentor and guardian and guide, the force of reason that stood between us and the jungle. I had never heard your voice waver, never seen the hint of moisture in your eyes. Not before now. This morning there are flowers in the garden and here I am thinking about the meaning of loss.

22/9/06 [permalink] [1804partiesnoted]

recipe for terror

One day before the fifth anniversary of the 9/11 bombings, and in the context of the internet being feared as a means by which radical extremist groups can disseminate knowledge useable for terrorist acts, here is a gem from the New York Times:

Mr. [Abu] Zubaydah dismissed Mr. [Jose] Padilla as a maladroit extremist whose hope to construct a dirty bomb, using conventional explosives to disperse radioactive materials, was far-fetched. He told his questioners that Mr. Padilla was ignorant on the subject of nuclear physics and believed he could separate plutonium from nuclear material by rapidly swinging over his head a bucket filled with fissionable material.

Some hilarious images come to mind here. But far less laughable are the allegations of secret CIA prisons and harsh interrogation techniques used on suspects. Sure - I'm not such a head-in-the-clouds idealist to think that there is no excuse for torture, even when authorities are certain that they've caught a terrorist who knows the location of a dirty bomb that's going to explode in a crowded city in ten hours' time. But the price of such pragmatism is, of course, what happens to innocent people apprehended as terror suspects and subjected to what is blithely termed "non-standard interrogation". That's not counting the more intangible cost to the US' claims to having the moral courage to be different from its enemies. Another interesting point in that article - according to accounts by former CIA agents, the US had consulted "foreign governments" to identify successful techniques beyond standard interviews. It'd be good to know which countries were consulted - who has the "best practices" on this sort of thing these days.

9/9/06 [permalink] [14partiesnoted]

Henry Kissinger, in a 1999 interview with Bernard Gwertzman. There's all sorts of juicy stuff in there - for one, it was interesting how impressed Kissinger seemed with Sadat, and his views on the former Soviet Union. But there are two quotes that stand out for me:

On wanting to write a book about statesmanship: "Diplomacy" dealt more with tactics... statesmanship is about fundamental underlying elements, about strategies.

Speaking about his book-in-progress: "it's like giving birth to a baby - it's sort of a letdown..."

Heh heh.

And here is an interesting list of things read. Clearly, not everything on it is amazing given that this is a chronological record rather than a "greatest hits" list. But Yvonne is an extremely intelligent reader and just discerning the trends and how one book sometimes leads on to another is quite exciting. Of course, it'd take me about thirty years to read everything on this list. Thirty-five, if Bethesda keeps on putting out Elder Scrolls games.

2/9/06 [permalink] [165partiesnoted]

China or India?

Somewhere in between the fractured nightmares of being late for work, bootleg 8pm whiskey sodas, and 2am post-work suppers, that question M asked me in the Philippines popped back into my mind - which country has the capacity - not the will, but the ability - to pose a greater challenge to the US: India or China? Clearly, this is the sort of thing that some people get paid a whole lot to take an educated swipe at, rather than the stuff of late-night blogging. I certainly can't answer this question. But there seems to be a clear thought process by which one would try to arrive at a prediction:

Henry Kissinger, ever the consummate elder strategist, makes the sound assessment in his book "Does America Need a Foreign Policy?" that if you take any country today, it is more in that country's interest to be on good terms with the US, rather than to be the US' enemy. So far, this is fairly evident. The second point is the immutability of history, geography, and size. There are only a few states that have the combination of land mass, population, economic weight, military potential, and cultural depth to assume the role of a separate geopolitical "pole" vis-a-vis the US. For most other countries, the US isn't so bad a deal. After all, it's fairly benign unless you happen to be Hugo Chavez or Kim Jong-Il.

The critical question then becomes: what is needed for the majority of the world's significant countries (i.e. those whose allegiances or views make a difference) to stop seeing things this way? The simple answer would be - if the US suddenly became outwardly belligerent, dangerous, or xenophobic. (Hmm.) But since this is relatively un-interesting from an intellectual point of view, let's look at other cases. To present a real alternative to the US in today's world, the claimant would have to have good expeditionary military capabilities and the political will to use them. Besides this, the country would have to exhibit formidable economic strength (be in a position to provide economic incentives or access to its markets, that would build chains of reliance), and have a reservoir of "soft power" - cultural attractiveness - whatever you call it that the US has, that makes consumers from Mindanao to Moscow desire their basketball, pop music and canned soda.

Take those indicators, and at this moment, I'd say that China has the edge. But it's not a strong lead, and fifty years is a decent time for India to catch up. At the end of the day, it's not a zero-sum game for either one of these aspirants. Should they both rise to the occasion, they will be in a solid position to call for the table to be set for three. And this promises to be a more stable, evolutionary redefinition of the world order, unlike the Cold War, where the former USSR's might was built on military power (which its bankrupt economy could not sustain and its rebellious vassals learnt to circumvent), and an ideological force that ultimately rang hollow.

2/9/06 [permalink] [19partiesnoted]

tanjong pagar + chinatown walk, and more things to read

Courtesy of CW, this info nugget on where sesame seeds come from. (If I were stuck answering a question on "Who Wants to be a Millionaire", there's nobody I'd rather call.)

An annual herb, Sesamum Indicum, cultivated in Central and South America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Several varieties are known, growing 50-250 cm high and bearing small purplish flowers. The seeds are used in confectionary and as food flavouring. Oil extracted from the seeds is used as a cooking and salad oil and in margarines and other products; the residue (sesame cake) is used as cattle feed. Family: Pedaliaceae.

Went to MAAD, the artists' market place at Red Dot design museum, today. Some promising stuff, but on the whole, the "art pieces" are a little too commercially oriented. Yet, despite this, and unlike the youth market behind Orchard Cineplex I browsed through, nobody really seems to be buying anything at MAAD.

27/8/06 [permalink] [17partiesnoted]

Ernest Hemingway, "The Old Man and the Sea"

It's not a long book - my version (courtesy of YL) stands at 109 pages of neat, well-spaced text. Many reviewers have praised it as sparse, taut, every word bolt-sharp in its place. The economy of language in "The Old Man and the Sea" is fitting for a tale this elemental - the tale of a man, a boat, a fish, and the sea.

His choice had been to stay in the deep dark water far out beyond all snares and traps and treacheries. My choice was to go there to find him beyond all people. Beyond all people in the world. Now we are joined together and have been since noon. And no one to help either one of us.

This is the story of a hunt, of "man versus fish". From the moment Santiago - the eponymous "old man" - decides to go out to sea, from the moment he sets his lines and feels the fateful tug - he enters a dance with a giant marlin that is graceful, deadly, and ultimately futile. But for Santiago, this is as much a battle with a marlin as it is a battle with himself, a test of human endurance and determination.

He could feel the steady hard pull of the line and his left hand was cramped. It drew up tight on the heavy cord and he looked at it in disgust. "What kind of a hand is that", he said. "Cramp then if you want. Make yourself into a claw. It will do you no good."

....

Then he was sorry for the great fish that had nothing to eat and his determination to kill him never relaxed in his sorrow for him. How many people will he feed, he thought. But are they worthy to eat him? No, of course not. There is no one worthy of eating him from the manner of his behaviour and his great dignity.

I do not understand these things, he thought. But it is good that we do not have to try to kill the sun or the moon or the stars. It is enough to live on the sea and kill our true brothers.

Hemingway leads us through Santiago's struggle against the marlin and himself. As night falls, Santiago finally succeeds in killing the marlin and lashes it to the side of his tiny skiff. But he has gone too far out to sea, and on the journey back to port, the marlin is devoured by sharks drawn to its blood, even as Santiago tries, unsuccessfully, to fight them off. "They beat me, Manolin... they truly beat me", says Santiago of the sharks. But his young friend Manolin has already convinced him that they should fish together again. "I'll bring the luck with me," urges Manolin. Slowly, Santiago begins to plan for the days ahead - a good killing lance, the blade ground from the spring leaf of an old Ford; a knife; three days of heavy brisa. "The Old Man and the Sea" is many things, but it is not a story of defeat.

19/8/06 [permalink] [29partiesnoted]

more books to be read

1) America 24/7 (collaborative digital photography; a week in the life of the US)
2) Andrew Motion, "From Here to Eternity" (poetry anthology)
3) Ben Slater, "Kinda Hot: The Making of Saint Jack in Singapore"

16/8/06 [permalink] [198partiesnoted]

Review: Malcolm Gladwell, "The Tipping Point"

In "The Tipping Point", Gladwell examines how small changes can spark "social epidemics" - an idea, message or product gaining popularity or entering society's consciousness in a rapid and exponential manner. He argues that while we tend to think of change as being incremental and trend-based, we must also consider the possibility of drastic, unforeseen change. He then presents his ideas on how one would try to engineer a social epidemic.

According to Gladwell, social epidemics are driven by "a handful of exceptional people", pushing a "sticky" message or idea or product in the appropriate "context". "Exceptional people" refer to Connectors (people who know lots of other people and are able to bring people together, and who hold influence in many different circles), Mavens (people who discover new things and gather knowledge, and who want to share this knowledge with others), and Salesmen (charismatic individuals who are accomplished at convincing the unconvinced).

"Stickiness" is that intangible x-factor that makes a message or product both attention-grabbing and memorable. This makes it easy to communicate and disseminate, and allows it to form the focus of a social epidemic. While Gladwell obviously cannot quantify "stickiness", he argues that the presentation of the product or idea is much more important than its content or nature. Hence, a small tweak to the presentation of an existing product or idea could render it "sticky" and, under the right circumstances, launch it into mass popularity.

Gladwell treats "context" as the environment and circumstances under which the idea or product is presented. He cites a rather chilling (yet entirely plausible) example - the 1964 Kitty Genovese stabbing in New York - to illustrate how humans respond as much to the context as we do to the message itself. Genovese, a young Queens woman, was fatally stabbed. Her screams for help attracted 38 eye-witnesses, but not a single one called the police or came forward to drive off her attacker. Accounts at the time attributed this seeming apathy to the callousness of big-city dwellers. However, two New York psychologists later conducted experiments in which a tester faked an epileptic seizure in a room adjacent to that of an unknowing test subject. When the subjects believed that they were the only ones aware of the seizure, 85 percent of them rushed over to offer help. But, when the subjects were given the impression that there were 4 people in the next room, only 31 percent of them went over. The psychologists concluded that although the message (the tester's "seizure") was identical in both cases, the subject's belief that there were multiple witnesses diffused the responsibility for acting.

The good, the bad, the ugly

Regardless of the accuracy of his overall thesis, Gladwell makes several useful points about the nature of change. Change in X is not simply caused by the introduction of new variables or driving forces, and is not necessarily proportionate to the changes in the existing variables that affect X. An incremental change (e.g. a small increase in the number of Canadian flu carriers visiting the US) can "tip" the balance, causing a controlled flu cluster in the US to become a full-blown, contagious oubreak. It's like the marginal cow in the "Tragedy of the Commons" - grazing 19 cows on an open pasture might be OK, but add an extra cow and the grass is eaten at an unsustainable rate, the pasture is depleted, and all 20 cows die of starvation.

Why does this matter? Because government policy and commercial planning operate on the basis that we can predict the future (or plausible futures) by analysing the direction and magnitude of change of underlying "driving forces" or "trends". Gladwell reminds us that the relationships between variables are not stable - an increase from 2 to 3 cows is very different from an increase from 19 to 20 cows. Take scenario planning's concept of "predetermined factors" - e.g. demographics - which are viewed as stable because we know largely what the age distribution will be in 15 years' time. Under Gladwell's thesis, a Y percent dependency ratio could have no discernible effect, but a Y+5 percent dependency ratio could, in principle, slow down the economy, upset social and family structures, and lower public approval ratings.

Gladwell's idea of social epidemics is less useful. Once you strip off the jargon, it is hardly rocket science that a good and catchy idea or product put forward by charismatic, knowledgeable people under the right circumstances will spread quickly. Even if we take Gladwell's typology of "exceptional individuals" at face value, it is also not obvious whether (and why) social epidemics require Connectors, Mavens and Salesmen to spark off, since Connectors and Salesmen are both vectors for ideas to spread. Missing from Gladwell's thesis, too, is a discussion on the forces that sustain these social epidemics beyond the immediate lifespan afforded by their association with Mavens, Connectors and Salesmen.

16/8/06 [permalink] [13partiesnoted]

Interview with David Marshall (from think happiness)

This is really a gem - the full text of a personal interview with David Marshall, the first Chief Minister of Singapore, that was conducted by several law students in 1994. Marshall's typically no-holds-barred remarks on Singapore (then and now) provide a bittersweet counterpoint to the National Day messages being piped into our living rooms. As we celebrate Singapore's successes, Marshall reminds us of what we may have lost.

13/8/06 [permalink] [18partiesnoted]

to see you go

How do you love them, these touches only the road could imagine!
Because the road still tells a good story about small figures pretty much like yours charging against the horizon.
And tells how, against astonishing odds often including themselves, most people get where they’re going.
Even in the hurtle and chinook of the vast swashbuckling diesels you hear it.
And, during hushes between, in these small secrets traded by birds.

- Reg Saner

for all must come to pass

You know, and we do, that the machine will go on without you. Days and years will come and pass and in time to come you (and all the rest of us) will be no more than whispered words snatched along the corridors, and signatures in pink files. We have no illusions about our own permanence.

But while nobody is indispensable, some are irreplaceable. Those of us you have entrusted with your confidence and your values will understand this well.

And I think it's only just starting to sink in - really, really sink in - that soon you will be gone from this place. Really gone this time, not just to some tropical resort or some expedition to Turkey or the UK. Your temporary presence denies us this comfort of realisation. And when it hits home fully that what we all shared within those walls will never be the same again, then there will be time for grief. Not fucked-up white-washed "sad-to-see-you-go" grief, but a silent and powerful reckoning.

To paraphrase Tennessee Williams, there is a time for departure, even when there's no certain place to go. This is the time, if ever there was any, and this won't be farewell, if we have any say in the matter. Then, forgive me my sadness and frustration, when I should be happy for you and the new beginning you have embarked upon. And perhaps in ten years' time, we will be fortunate enough to all be sitting together, enjoying our cups of tea, and this will seem small and distant. Until then, there is only the road ahead, looking emptier than it did just two months ago.

12/8/06 [permalink] [356partiesnoted]

beer country

The New York Times ran an article about beer trails in the Czech Republic. This passage below was intriguing enough to warrant a further look at the entire article:

Going to the source is an emerging pastime for beer lovers. The wine trails of Napa, Bordeaux and Piedmont need no introduction. The same, however, cannot be said for the beer trails of Bohemia and Moravia. And yet, in recent years, amateur beer hunters have begun carving their own paths through these ancient Czech kingdoms, tapping into the same passion for local hops and barley that drives oenophiles to cross the globe for zinfandel and nebbiolo.

And I see myself walking the cobbled streets and gothic quiet of Ceske Budejovice, in flashes of memory that feel small and far away. It is almost winter, and we are eating sausages and drinking hot mulled wine. I didn't get excited at the pale pilsners in their casks of wood and steel. Reading this article, perhaps I should've been.

9/8/06 [permalink] [665partiesnoted]

declaration of independence

The beauty of independence, departure,
actions that rely on themselves.

- Walt Whitman, "Song of the Broad-Axe"